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By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Benchmark U.S.
Treasury yields hit an 11-year high on Thursday and a key part of the yield curve was the most inverted in at least two decades as investors positioned for the Federal Reserve to continue its hawkish stance toward hiking rates as it battles persistently high inflation.
The U.S.
central bank on Wednesday hiked interest rates by
75 basis points and signaled more increases are to come.
The target interest rate was increased to a range of 3.00%-3.25% and new projections in the "dot plot" showed its policy rate rising to 4.40% by the end of this year
before topping out at 4.60% in 2023.
"The dot plot was more hawkish than expected, though it ended up being downplayed a bit," said Michael de Pass, head
of linear rates at Citadel Securities. Yields eased from highs on Wednesday after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
said that the so-called "dot plot" of rate expectations do not
represent a plan or commitment, underscoring the difficulty in forecasting the economy's path.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields have risen from four-month lows on Aug.
2 on rising expectations that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy and hold rates higher for longer even if it risks denting growth.
This move has been led by so-called real yields, which account for
expected inflation. "Given the move we´d seen, particularly in real yields, over the last couple of weeks the market had done a lot of work to price in expectations. The real takeaway is that the Fed is continuing on with its inflation mandate regardless of the effect on the job market," said
de Pass.
Powell said that central bank officials are "strongly resolved" to bring down inflation from the highest levels
in four decades and "will keep at it until the job is done." Traders were also focused on Thursday on whether Japan was selling Treasuries as the country intervenes to shore up the tumbling yen. Japan is the largest foreign holder of
U.S.
Treasuries, with $1.23 trillion in the assets as of July, according to government data.
Two-year Treasury yields were last 4.105%, after earlier reaching 4.132%, the highest since October 2007.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields reached 3.662%, the highest since February 2011.
The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes inverted as
far as minus 58 basis points, the most inverted level since at least 2000, indicating rising concerns about an impending recession. It
was last at minus 46 basis points. The curve between five-year and 30-year bonds also inverted to minus 34 basis
points.
Real yields held below highs reached on Wednesday.
Five-year yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) were last
reached 1.381%, after reaching 1.422% on Wednesday, the highest since
August 2009. 10-year TIPS yields were last 1.230%, after reaching 1.246% on Wednesday, the highest since February 2011.
Demand for inflation-linked debt will be tested on Thursday
when the Treasury Department auctions $15 billion in 10-year TIPS.
September 22 Thursday 9:40AM New York / 1340 GMT Price
Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 3.21 3.2809 -0.011 Six-month bills 3.7775
3.9041 0.002 Two-year note 98-108/256 4.1051 0.110 Three-year note 98-96/256 4.0848 0.145 Five-year note 96-182/256 3.8629 0.148 Seven-year note 95-254/256 3.7872 0.143 10-year note
92-160/256 3.6443 0.132 20-year bond 93-76/256 3.8606 0.101 30-year bond 89 3.604 0.084 DOLLAR SWAP
SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S.
2-year dollar swap 37.75 -1.75 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 17.25 -2.25 spread
U.S. 5-year dollar swap 9.25 0.00 spread U.S.
10-year dollar swap 6.00 0.00 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -31.25 -0.25 spread (Reporting by Karen Brettell; editing by
Jonathan Oatis)
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